Big dick pendulm swings a bit

The Bug’s exclusive, patented, big swinging dick electoral pendulum has seen its Rupert Murdoch bellend move ever so slightly to the right!

As Buggers would know, The Bug‘s resident amateur psephologist uses his own particular method to chart the mood of the electorate as this seemingly endless campaign nears the end of its second week.

It’s the average across four major polls of the LNP’s primary vote. adjusted as each new poll is published. For example, Newspoll last Sunday showed a dip of one per cent in LNP primary support to 35. The Roy Morgan poll showed the Liberals adding three points to 35.5.

With old figures sloughing off and new ones inserted, we find the LNP at a smidge (sorry for the technical terms) over 34 per cent. That’s almost seven-and-a-half percent below the 41.44 the LNP mustered in 2019 to just fall across the line.

Why does The Bug use the LNP’s primary vote? Well, we can’t afford to do it any other way.

Besides, we’ve always thought it was a very reasonable barometer to test the government’s chances of re-election seeing they’ve been the party in power for most of the past decade. When we first started this measure, the accepted wisdom was that the LNP needed 42 per cent primary to just limp back into power. The bar got lowered a tad in 2019 and might have had a little bit to do with Clive Palmer’s $80 million-plus ad spend aimed largely at Bill Shorten and Labor.

The bottom line this time is that if the LNP can’t substantially lift that primary average from 34 per cent in the four weeks to come, they are toastaroonie. (Once again, apologies for the technical term).

EDITOR’S NOTE: The Bug‘s world-patented and much-admired Big Swinging Dick Electoral Pendulum was inspired by the presence in federal Parliament House in years past of a Big Swinging Dicks Club of well-known Liberal politicians (below).

…to come…