March poll a big mythtake

Listen to the likes of Andrew Probyn and Chris Uhlmann over recent days and you’d be stupid not to wager some hard-earned with Sportsbet immediately at $2.20 for a March election. Okay, not brilliant odds but there’s a tidy profit there to be made on a sure thing, right?

To summarise the thoughts of these two astute mainstream media political observers, Smoko’s poll numbers are dire and the great marketer/communicator might decide to go early before:

A. They get worse; or

B. The Spud with Dead Eyes makes his move.

Michelle Grattan has also mused on the March poll possibility and chatter is growing louder that Parliament might not even return next year. Today’s Sun-Herald even reports on retiring MPs giving their final ta-tas next week just in case.

Well, Australia’s most unrespected and uncanningly inaccurate amateur psephologist – that’s me, by the way! – is here to declare the chances of a March election as complete balderdash, even if Probyn says it’s likely.

It’s pure tripe. Fictional folly. It’s about as likely to happen as Smoko telling the truth at a media call or during a Question Time response or a Parnell Palme McGuinness column making sense.

Having consistently said from the get-go that there would not be a federal election in 2021, I offer the following reasons for the election being held in May. Fuck it! I’ll be more precise. May 21.

All bullies are also cowards. Which makes Scott Morrison a coward. If rumours of internal Liberal Party polling are correct, Smoko knows he’s in deep poo-poo. The latest mainsream poll available – Roy Morgan – has Labor on 55.5/44.5 two-party preferred.

There’s no way Smoko’s going to give up a few final months in power if things are not going to improve dramatically for him over Yuletide and in the early weeks of 2022 as our headaches subside and broken New Year’s promises fade from memory.

But most importantly, his template from his non-miracle win in 2019 remains largely intact and requires time to rinse and repeat if he is to have any chance of keeping his lardarse in The Lodge.

There needs to be time for another $90 million ad spend from the Fat Controller to have its full anti-Labor impact. Ditto for the hundreds of millions of dollars of taxpayer-funded pro-government advertising before the GG fires the starting gun. What we’ve seen so far is just the tip of the snowjob.

Ditto for an early federal Budget that the mainstream media will lavish praise over.

Ditto for whatever gold-standard porkbarreling is most likely already under way but will be rolled out with greater enthusiasm over the next four or five months. We haven’t yet seen a beaming Trent Zimmerman in a local North Shore paper presenting an oversized novelty cheque under his name and with the Liberal logo on it for an obscene amount of money to the local croquet club under the Regional Railways Timber Sleeper Replacement Project.

Ditto for images of Tim Wilson running to a ComCar the way LeMans used to start, to begin a tax-payer-funded, immoral, unethical, disgracefully dishonest parliamenary inquiry and Liberal fundraiser and party membership drive into some Labor Party policy should Albanese and Co. be stupid enough to publicise one.

No, most of this has yet to happen .. yet … dear Buggers so get your credit card out and get online to Sportsbet. May 21 it is.

And, yes, I guess all of you want to know how Australia’s most unrespected and uncanningly inaccurate amateur psephologist – that’s me, by the way – believes that May 2022 poll will pan out.

Like most people who hazarded a guess back in 2019, I’m still picking little pieces of egg out of both nostrils and earholes.

But I think Smoko is cooked. He’s dead, buried and cremated.

Once a large swag of people start openly laughing at you just about every time you open your mouth to let a porky pop out, your political future is terminal.

I’ll conclude with just a few words of utter contempt for the Liar from the Shire, the Crook from Cook, the Crime Minister by Ronni Salt in an excellent piece for The Shot.

Ronni, who clearly wielded a whaling flensing knife in an earlier life, pondered a very reasonable question as she exorcised and eviscerated Smoko into bite-sized bits of blubber: how was it at all possible that “a man who’d be lucky to win fourth prize in a David Brent impersonation contest has been elevated to the highest office in the land”.

We hear you, Ronni. We hear you!

Don Gordon-Brown

Top graphic based on an excellent Alex Ellinghausen snap showing Scott Morrison in Parliament on Thursday keen to provide some pastoral care to a Liberal backbencher.