The only pole that counted

dgb dinkus NEW

COMMENT:

As Australia’s most trusted and reliable* amateur psephologist, I feel a little rant coming on about voting figures from that May election that broke the hearts of people who care about this country’s future.

The figures come courtesy of my close personal friend, Australia’s most trusted and reliable** professional psephologist Antony Green, a man whose dissections of polls I’d trust with my life, even though I’ve never really understood how a man so organised and fussy in an almost anally retentive way could have misplaced the ‘h’ in his first name.

Antz put together the final total polling day and total advance voting figures and they tell us many interesting things, none more so than the fact that Labor won the vote on the day: 50.6% to the LNP’s 49.4% two-party preferred.

So why hasn’t shifty, snake-in-the-grass, sycophantic Bill Shorten pulled his legs out from under the tables of billionaires and popped them under the dining table in the Lodge where they deserved to be, if there was in fact a God?

Why aren’t those those two absolute darlings Tanya Plibersek and Penny Wong doing senior ministerial work of a standard that the frauds now in those roles could only dream about – if they indeed had the skills to dream such things?

And why isn’t Happy Clapper Scott Morrison, ceremoniously tossed out of Opposition leadership, back where he belongs, walking among the faithful at Hillsong with his donation bucket and collecting for the good lord Jesus’ mighty works among those who want to be rich?

And why, oh fucking why, is this no-talent, marketing moron still in charge, embarrassing us daily with his blokey boofheadedness and sad-sack acts such as disappearing up the arse of the Orange Baboon in Washington and chugging kava and beer and pissing his pants in Fiji?

Here’s the rub. Contrary to much popular conjecture from the so-called experts and me, those big crowds at pre-polling booths were not carrying baseball bats after all. Well, not enough anyway. Morrison’s miserable ministry of buffoons, braggarts, bullies and bores pulled 54.6 per cent of all total advance voting to Labor’s 45.4 per cent. Maybe it really was a case of rich cunts voting early before turning left at the aircraft doors for an unearned OS holiday courtesy of underpaid employees?

While I won’t bore you with the raw figures, the big pre-poll turnout – 42.3 percent – of all votes – brought about the final combined two-party figure, 51.5 per cent to LNP to Labor’s 48.5 per cent.

Let’s look at that polling-day breakdown again.

As Australia’s only psephologist – amateur or otherwise – who argued from day one after May 18 that the major pollsters may not have gotten their final poll-eve predictions wrong after all, I find Labor’s vote on the Saturday most illuminating.

Take Newspoll’s final poll showing Labor at 51.5 per cent to the LNP’s 48.5 per cent.

That’s right; despite being out by only 0.9 per cent on my good mate Ants’ figures, that’s the one that sent The Australian and its polling company into an apologetic tizz, suspending such polling for quite some months allegedly to tinker with their polling model but in reality just an excuse to save some money for a while and make the shitty rag’s week-to-week losses look a little less horrific.

The Guardian’s Essential poll followed suit and in fact is yet to emerge from the black hole in which it has been whipping itself in a frenzy of self-pity over its own polling methods, although it seems perfectly happy to once again poll preferred PM and all sorts of other irrelevant shit. Politics no longer makes any sense in Australia so why should The Guardian?

So, given most if not all of the land’s leading political writers and columnists will still swear black and blue that many voters don’t make up their minds until they enter the polling station, already pissed off by the lack of parking and the queues, who says Newspoll, Essential, Galaxy or ReachTel got things terribly wrong, especially in their poll-eve samplings are perhaps a little earlier than that? If a week is a long time in politics, so is 24 hours.

And especially in this unique election, where a fat, self-centred, worker-hating arsehole of a mining stagnant was outspending the two major parties two-to-one, with a reported $9 million spent in the final week of campaigning alone, much of it in the 48 hour electronic blackout at the death and half of it attacking Shorten’s character.

tell shifty - palmer ad on election day - net
Still, the repulsive fat bastard will be hoping to get some mining leases approved now as payback, so it’s money well spent, right?

As it’s turned out, this amateur psephologist is rather happy Newspoll especially went into hiding for a while.

It gave me a welcome break from having to come to grips with just how far Australia has slipped into the sludge of political indifference and cynicism.

Nothing makes me sadder about the country I don’t quite love as much as I used to is the knowledge that the next Newspoll, whenever it lobs, will have the Liar from the Shire, the Slogan Bogan, Water Boy, Bullshit Boy, Beer Guzzling, Pants-wetting, Blokey Boofhead, Happy Clapping Pentecostal Preacher of a Man Scott “Pray for rain and it will come” Morrison, his right hand extended skyward as he worships his own particular yet rather nasty magic sky daddy, as our preferred Prime Minister, probably still by a wide margin.

Oh, my dear, dear Oz. What the fuck happened to you? You were once such a lucky country.

Don Gordon-Brown

*family survey August/September 2019

** only ‘cos it’s true