Did anyone else hear a funny little “tinkling” sound in the background when Chris Uhlmann was reporting on a new federal voting intentions poll on last night’s Channel 9 6pm news?
I could be wrong but I thought it might have been Chris pissing himself with excitement that the poll shows Labor stuck on 33 per cent primary vote, the same as at the 2019 election and even back then it was the worst result for the ALP since the dinosaurs roamed the earth.
Chris was banging on about the results of a brand new pollster for the SMH and the Age – all part of Nine Entertainment that also owns Channel 9.
But while I don’t want to burst Chris’s bubble and his hopes for a triumphant return by his beloved LNP at the next election to put those woke, latte-sipping Commie lefties in their place, as Australia’s most inaccurate amateur psephologist, may I draw his attention to some perhaps salient facts.
Firstly …. no, bugger it… let’s start with showing you why we at The Bug think Chris Uhlmann is a fucking fool. Or if not that bad, then at the very least a flibbertigibbet, a will-‘o-the-wisp, a clown!
Have a captain’s at this retweet of his to promote that Nine news item.
As you can see, 9News Sydney claims the poll shows “the Liberals losing part of their preferred party lead”.
“Preferred” is the key word and by either accident or design, Channel 9 is letting viewers think the LNP has retained a two-party preferred lead, and not just a drop in their “primary” lead.
This is just so fucking WRONG that you’d hope any politics reporter worth their salt would have spotted it and stayed way clear of it for the sake of their own reputation and standing among their pee-ers – sorry, peers.
The poll explains that Labor has a small 2PP lead within the margin of error that won’t be disclosed. More on that later.
So what Uhlmann has joyously retweeted is NOT. FUCKING. TRUE.
If Uhlmann didn’t pick that up, should we really ever trust anything this muglair says?
The poll by some new group, Resolve Political Monitor, was conducted by a mob called Resolve Strategic run by a chap named Jim Reed.
So just in case Chris ever feels an uncontrollable urge to start assessing and reporting politics in a fair and balanced way, here are some other aspects of that poll that he could perhaps reflect on.
Released only in the past day or so, the poll was conducted “earlier this month”. We’re still looking for the exact span of dates but we think the latest polling was completed at least a full week ago.
And wouldn’t Uhlmann like a dollar for every time he’s said a week is a long time in politics? A fair person would admit Morrison has maintained a steady downhill slide of late. So does anyone with a nose and a sense for things believe Labor has not improved over recent times?
But let’s forget gut feelings and go with the glorious facts.
The latest Newspoll on March 28 had Labor on 38 per cent primary; the one before it was 39.
That was three weeks ago and Morrison and Co have been putting in shocking days regularly since. Lately, they can’t even drink a milkshake without getting it all over their mugs.
So while Uhlmann adjusts his extra- strength kimbies in a wee moment of euphoria, I’m suggesting that, regardless of the margin of error, one of these two polls could be significantly out of whack. And my best bet is it’s the SMH/Age poll showing Labor rotting away on 33 primary.
It was that figure that even had Peter Overton being uhlmannesque in his lead-in last night by saying the poll showed the government “best placed to win the next election”. Even Mr Reed says that’s not the case.
Yet that 33 per cent figure was largely the focus of the segment and allowed Uhlmann to wax lyrical about how upset Labor must be by that result given weeks of missteps by the government but still, Albanese will most likely lead the party to that poll.
POSTSCRIPT: After input from readers, SMH national editor Tory Maguire, chief political correspondent David Crowe and political editor Peter Hartcher sat down with their new pollsters and decided that two-party-preferred results were old hat and had too much of a two-horse feel about them.
The Bug reckons leaving out the all-important 2PP figure is a bit like the PA on the Titanic advising passengers that the late-night dinner service had now concluded but failing to mention as well the ship had just hit an iceberg.