Hold on to your hats, Buggers! Australia’s leading amateur psephologist feels another of his infamously inaccurate election predictions coming on.
I’ve taken a virtual tour of the federal electorate of Eden-Monaro in the bright-yellow Bug mobile and I am now ready to provide the political junkies among you sad and sorry lot with the two-party-preferred vote at the close of counting this coming Saturday!
Yes, I know. I know. To do this without waiting until week’s end when the Newcorpse papers will do some last-gasp push polling showing the Liberals with a clear lead is indeed a very brave thing to do – or possibly very stupid which is why I’ve already smeared a very nice egg all over my face. I was assured it was range-free.
There’s also been a massive pre-poll so you’d really have to be stupid to put any hard-earned reputation as a political forecaster on the line, right?
Nevertheless, get a pen ready because I really want you to put some of your hard-earned on this and clean up with your bookie of choice.
So here it is: Labor’s candidate Kristy McBain on 53.21 percent at close of counting; Liberals’ Fiona Kotvojs on 47.79!
But, first, a word of warning. If you didn’t realise straight away that those two numbers add up to more than 100 per cent, please don’t place a bet. You’re either fucking stupid or Peter Dutton and Mathias Cormann.
And the rest of you are probably thinking: why has Australia’s leading amateur psephologist decided that the ALP will do much better on Saturday than most political commentators and real psephologists like that Helen Bonham Carter in Tasmania are predicting?
Well, the simple answer is that they take things far too seriously and actually study facts and figures.
They factor in things like stats such as an Australian government has not won a seat off the Opposition since dinosaurs roamed the earth, that Eden-Monaro is Labor’s fourth most marginal seat on 50.85 per cent 2PP last year and former member Mike Kelly’s personal vote of around 2-3 per cent is missing this time.
They also consider the fact that Scott Morrison has somehow become the much-loved “Father of our Nation” and respected wartime leader.
And that’s why they are almost universal in their belief that it’s going to be a close run thing, one way or the other.
But I never bother with that sort of shit. I go with my ever-increasing gut feeling – imbued with an almost pathological hatred for all things Smoko – that deep down, Australians know that Morrison is a truly horrible cunt and as soon as people stop getting the billions he’s throwing at them over COVID-19 his popularity will plop back deep in the lying, cheating crapper where it belongs.
And if there is only one group of Australians who hasn’t been sucked in by this Father of the Nation nonsense, it’s those to the eastern side of Eden-Monaro who are still waiting for assistance in the wake of last summer’s bushfires and who have always seen Smoko for who he really is.
I’m betting on the fact that even youngsters throughout the electorate who are quite liking the PM at the moment because they’re raking in the Jobkeeper dosh way beyond what they were paid for the shitty part-time and split-shift jobs they had before the coronavirus have relatives still living in caravans and tents and wondering why the fuck all that aid Smoko promised them disappeared in a puff of LNP smoke and mirrors.
Hence my election night prediction. If I don’t believe that all these things I’ve just mentioned are absolute and inviolate truths, what really would be the sense of carrying on?