Okay! My fading faith in the Australian electorate has been bolstered just a bit by the result of yesterday’s by-election result in Dunkley in Melbourne’s south-east.

My reputation as arguably Australia’s most accurate amateur psephologist remains slightly tarnished: I was 1.79 percent out on my 2PP guess at the end of counting on the night. Quite a long way out.

But I’m just so chuffed that the good folk of Dunkley have largely called bullshit on the racist, lying, scaremongering, disgusting ad campaign run by Advance and fully backed by Peter Dutton, Sussan Ley and other leading LNP dims.

But while the voters of Dunkley deserve a bouquet, I’m afraid it’s still largely brickbats for our woeful mainstream mediocre. And today’s best example, for mine, is the opinion piece by David Crowe, chief political correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, who decided one word best summed up the Dunkley by-election result (at top and below).

In fact I had to read through his piece twice, posted online at 9.23pm on election night, before finding the word in the penultimate paragraph of a 22-paragraph assessment. And quite chunky paragraphs at that.

Perhaps Crowe’s creative writing skills should be applauded in keeping me and others in suspenders by cleverly burying the lead/lede almost to the bitter end.

And the word was …… AVERAGE!

Before your ranter-in-residence tries to dissect Crowe’s assessment and attempts to understand what he means by using that word, let’s backtrack right back up to the start of his opinion piece and marvel at his opening two pars….

Peter Dutton was counting on an angry protest vote in the Dunkley byelection to humiliate the government and prove the Liberal Party could retake power in Canberra.

The opposition leader gained the protest he wanted, but not the proof he needs.

Really, David Crowe? The opposition leader gained the protest he wanted?

Codswallop, David. Pure Tosh. And for you to pen that, it is any wonder you are the current co-holder of The Bug‘s Media Glass House arse-licker for the month of February trophy?

While it’s true that not too far into your piece, you opine that the red-hot anger LNP frontbencher Jane Hume claimed a few days out from polling day simply did not eventuate, we’ll keep focusing on this “The opposition leader gained the protest he wanted” rubbish. A brain fade on your part, perhaps? Or is this just how you write now as the Herald mastheads drift relentlessly to the right under the guidance of Nine Entertainment Co. chair Peter Costello?

At close of counting last night, the Australian Electoral Commission had Labor’s Jodie Belyea on 33,241 primary votes, 1385 ahead of the Liberals’ Nathan Conroy on 31,856. Belyea leads 52.53/47.47 on 2PP.

These figures were finalised presumably not long after you penned your piece so let’s now dissect whether Peter Dutton and his Opposition frontbenchers should be satisfied with what you see as an “average” outcome for them.

Labor has actually improved its primary vote from the 2022 election won by the popular and hardworking Peta Murphy who sadly left us late last year. Ms Murphy had a primary vote in 2022 of 40.23 per cent. Jodie Belyea is sitting on 40.98, just shy of 41 per cent. An amazing result, really, from a non-political, relatively unknown candidate choice up against the three-time mayor of Frankston!

The Liberals’ primary vote increase has been largely due to the votes that flowed their way without One Nation or UAP candidates this time.

The swing to the LNP of around 3.7 per cent is very much in the general range of by-elections over time, as ABC elections guru Antony Green has pointed out.

And I’d really suggest a standup comedy career for Sussan Ley after her post-poll declaration that Dunkley is now a marginal seat. Take away that typical by-election swing and it’s very, very arguable that Belyea if she works hard will start the next election in a much stronger position than whatever the final 2PP result ends up being after Saturday’s vote.

We’ll also discount losing candidate Conroy’s declaration that the ALP campaign had been low and dirty and yet his side had “aimed high”.

As mentioned at the top, the LNP happily ran on the coattails of the disgusting, racist, divisive, dishonest, fearmongering campaign by Advance that tried to convince the good folk of Dunkley that they were in imminent danger of being attacked by rapists, paedophiles and murderers roaming free in the electorate. Dutton’s deputy Sussan Ley joined the fray with her X post.

By the SMH’s own estimate, Advance spent $300,000 on their largely online shitty, disgusting campaign. Some suggest it was closer to $400,000. Advance will not be spending that amount in Dunkley when all 150 electorates are in play at the next federal poll.

I’ll keep my fingers crossed that somewhere on the fringes of this nation’s woefully corrupt and biased mainstream mediocre, someone will have the guts to dissect what really happened in Dunkley yesterday and declare that the LNP has had a far worse outcome than an “average” one.

We’ve lost Katharine Murphy so does it always have to be Crikey‘s Bernard Keane who steps into the breach to tell it as it really is?

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