Buckley’s or none.
That’s the chances I’m giving for a federal election this year.
Social mediocre has been abuzz lately with renewed talk of a December 11 poll – Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese mentioned that date earlier this week in a rallying call to his troops to be ready for such a campaign – and online bookie sportsbet narrowed the odds of a pre-Christmas poll from 8-1 to 6-1 a few days ago.
Your favourite amateur psephologist (me!) has always argued the election will not be held until 2022 and I’m sticking with that view, no matter how flimsy and absurd my reasoning for that has always been – namely that it would take some time but Australians would slowly wake up to the fact that Smoko Morrison is a dreadful piece of work. Note: I’m trying to use cunt less of late.
But I am using my egg-on-face dinkus as a precaution; I have occasionally been known to be wrong in my very unscientific, gut-feely way of reading polls and trends.
But if Smoko does spring a poll on us in a few weeks, at least I’ll have been wrong only the once.
Some well-known politics commentators will be able to rightly declare they were wrong, right, wrong and right again.
Let’s boil this thing down to its basics.
November – once touted as the month – is now done and dusted. Was anyway, but Smoko’s decision to head off to Glasgow to be humiliated by world leaders makes it official. Sportsbet though still has a November poll at 18-1, proving there’s a mug punter born every minute, considering the PM would have to call a November 27 election in around four days time.
The last December election was 13 polls ago – on December 1 1984.
Australians are an even more mobile lot than almost three decades ago, and the thought of forcing a ballot-box visit on people the day after schools around Oz break up and good parents will probably have already pulled Baxter and Siobhan out early to speed off in their new SUV to escape the COVID blues seems a very risky call to me.
A December 11 election must be called by November 8 which means that Smoko, having been chaired and cheered around the GOP26 Glasgow conference floor by a grateful world for his ironclad commitment to a now-outdated net zero emissions target by 2050, and no doubt propositioned by a star-struck Greta Thunberg in the process, will have to rush home for the short drive out to Yarralumla.
He’d do so with a lengthy ICAC public hearing into Saint “I need you to stand in Warringah!” Gladys still ringing in people’s ears, especially in Smoko’s home state where he’ll be desperately hoping to win a few extra seats to offset losses elsewhere.
But what’s got my ever-increasing gut aquiver with hope if nothing else is social-mediocre talk that internal Liberal Party polling is not good for them right now. Some idea of that might be gleaned by the Heralds’ shonky Resolve Political Monitor poll now due.
And if it’s true that the polls are poor, and bearing in mind that all bullies are cowards, Smoko is going to hang on for as long as he can in the hope of another “miracle” outcome.
Other key signs of a pending poll are also missing.
Like the $600 million taxpayer-funded cross-media advertising splurge explaining how good Smoko has been and will continue to be if voters are sensible and do the right thing. True, there is a strange federal government ad doing the rounds at the moment about a new, improved, green Oz that seems more obtuse than overpowering as back-the-LNP-and-Climate-Change-Man! messaging.
When Smoko’s real promo ads begin, we’ll all know: they will be shamelessly pointed, deceitful and tummy churning in their hypocrisy.
The other thing missing so far, of course, is a photo of Georgina Downer presenting a large novelty cheque to some undeserving community or sports club in whatever electorate Lord Downer has decreed she should be elected by a grateful hoi polloi as she begins her tragically delayed but inevitable run to a much-deserved national political leadership befitting the Downer family name.
UPDATE: Sportsbet earlier this morning has a December 2021 poll drifting out from 6-1 to 8-1. November is out to $21 if you have some money to burn.