Only a complete fucking idiot would predict the outcome of the October 31 Queensland state election this far out.
I mean, really, if a week is a long time in politics, how long is seven weeks?
Nevertheless, Australia’s leading amateur psephologist has this burning desire to share his prediction with all of you out there in Bugland. Right here. Right now.
So here it is. And if anyone wants to put some of their hard-earned on that outcome, all I can say is: “Please, gamble responsibly.”
What will be the state of play when counting ends for the night a mere 49 days from now?
Before I disclose that, can I just say I’m not a big fan of Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk?
I can’t find it in my heart of hearts to forgive her for the way she shat her nice business suit pants after the last federal election and swallowed hook, line and sinker the bullshit analysis by the LNP’s Bowen Hills branch of what those federal voting patterns across the Dumbshine State would mean to her own election fortunes.
After the May 2019 federal poll, she saw nothing but blue above Brisbane and fell apart when she should have seen red and shown steely resolve.
Instead of seething with anger over a perfect storm of LNP lies and an unprecedented $90 million plus ad campaign from the Fat Man, Palaszczuk blinked and decided her only path to the retention of power was to be kinder to coal.
From a state leader who won victory in her own right in 2017 by, finally and at mid-campaign, telling the Adanis and Palmers of this world a few home truths about coal’s future she finds herself weakened as a political leader who had the chance to now be seen as a climate change warrior.
More fool her. She could have put a halt to the Greens takeover of inner-Brisbane with a strong no-more-mines stance. Now she’s probably going to fall victim to a repeat of the LNP lies from that federal poll that state Labor wants to close down all coal mines immediately anyway.
Hell, the Queensland LNP has probably offered Bob Brown funding for another caravan to the central Queensland coal mines in coming weeks so he and his mates can drive through rural towns and wave at angry locals.
Once COVID-20 is beaten or contained, climate change will return as the No1 political issue for the world’s future. Even sleepy old Joe Biden can see that, even if he can’t see the Golden Gate bridge right now.
Palaszczuk got conned, a job made easier by the fact she went along with Adani’s claims, championed by the Courier and Sunday Mails, that the Indian businessman’s mines would employ close to 431,000 workers!!! Or thereabouts.
So, yes, your ranter does not take kindly to anyone sucked in by, or afraid of, anything Rupert Murdoch throws at them.
And I’m also a little pissed off that Palaszczuk did not follow my suggestions after the last two state elections to strip the LNP’s Bowen Hills branch of all government advertising. I would have told them to go fuck themselves with a rubber hose, just using diplomatic language, that’s all.
So, to my election-night forecast.
But before I do, one other thing about Palaszczuk.
She’s getting some credit for her handling of the coronavirus pandemic but she’s no Daniel Andrews or Mark McGowan.
Effective political leaders are great actors and the Queensland Premier is not one of them. She sometimes lets her facade slip to reveal she’s rather chuffed that circumstances have given her a political legup at just the right time in the political cycle.
A smarter politician would pretend to show more gravitas and not look quite as pleased with herself.
So, my prediction. But before that, I note that respected political scribe Dennis Atkins believes Labor is favourite at the moment to win a third term and four more years and that, just as in the Northern Territory a few weeks back, the Queensland poll will be largely about COVID-19 and what side of politics is best equipped to handle the state’s economic recovery from it.
Maybe Dennis has more recent polls to go by. The last I saw had the LNP slightly ahead. His comments also came before those senior ministers called it quits; not a great look as the election period nears.
Anyway, here we go.
But one last thing. I read on social mediocre somewhere that the Fat Man was going to spend some $80 million on the state campaign, peddling, I presume, similar bullshit to that he plucked out of his big fast arse for the last federal poll.
The man’s desperate to get his Waratah coal projects up and running but surely an ad spend almost as great as in the federal poll seems very, very unlikely, despite the two-page spreads he’s starting to throw at the LNP’s Bowen Hills branch.
But let’s say it’s going to be very, very sizeable.
I’ve got to stay true to my convictions. Smoko Morrison scraped back into power on the back of a litany of lies, a farago of fibs about confiscated petrol and diesel cars and utes and death taxes, thrashed parliamentary conventions to debunk Labor policy and, as we now know, unprecedented pork-barreling but for mine the main reason was Palmer’s ad spend.
I’m the only psephologist, amateur or real, who has argued the polls were accurate on the eve of that May 18 election, but did not detect the damage being done late by the Fat Man, especially among stupid Queensland voters. And, boy, as a Queenslander, let me tell some of them can be very, very stupid.
If the Fat Man spends even $20 million – and selling politics is like selling soap powder – I’m calling it for the Freckle on election night!
A minority LNP government, supported by a mishmash of equally right-wing minor parties.
Coal will remain king, Matt Canavan’s voice will grow more strident of the need for new mines and new coal-fired power plants, and the world as we know it can go fuck itself with a rubber hose.
And, third-time lucky, the senior editors at The Courier-Mail and Sunday Mails will slap one another’s backs and convince themselves they had a major role in changing the government, even if all they will really have achieved is to fatally damage their business brand to close to half of Queensland’s population.