The pendulum gets personal

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FEDERAL ELECTION:

Unless News Corpse this week publishes photos of Bill Shorten fucking dogs – and even then they’ll have to be male dogs; no wait, they’ll have to be male dogs with hideous mange – this election is done and dusted.

Labor at the very least will have a comfortable  victory; it could still be quite a bit bigger if not in landslide territory where it would have been if the LNP hadn’t tried its very dishonest best to scare the bejesus out of everybody with retiree/housing/super/death taxes.

So grab hold of my own personal election pendulum (ooh, that’s nice!) as we take a swing through the final six days of the campaign. And here’s how it all works out.

Firstly, let’s put various state redistributions as to how they affected existing seats and created new ones out of the equation by simply focusing on that pendulum of mine which isn’t really mine at all. I’ve stolen a couple of real pendulums (pendulii?)  – the famous Mackerras one and one from some site called electionarium.com for our starting point. They might be one and the same for all I know.

They both have the LNP at a notional 73 seats to Labor’s 72 after all that seat change/abolition/creation malarkey. Independents have six.

From the get-go, let’s get News Corps political scribes around the country wetting their pants and wanting to ring Rupert with the news by giving two current independent seats back to the government – Fizza’s old seat of Wentworth (sorry, Doc!) and Indie in Victoria.
That takes the LNP up to 75 seats – only one short of victory! Labor stays at 72; the indies down to four.

But don’t break out the bubbly just yet, Renee of Brisbane, Sharri of Sydney and Andrew of Melbourne. There are 23 Liberal seats in the pendulum’s marginal seat category up to 6%.

Here are the ones that are gone for all money, if you take the advice of the political experts, in some cases the parties themselves and the online bookies, whose job it is not to lose money. They are Gilmore (NSW), Chisholm (Vic) and La Trobe (Vic).

That puts Labor up to 75, the LNP back to 72! On the Labor side, Herbert is lost for Labor, due to changed preference deals.  That puts the LNP back to 73, where it started. Labor a nose ahead on 74.

Don’t get too excited yet, girls and boys at Campbell and Holt streets. Now is where it gets nasty.

In the LNP’s marginals, there are a swag of seats where Labor has been comfortably ahead with the bookies since the campaign began.

Liberal seats that look in great danger – if you believe the MSM pundits, such as Laura Tingle who has basically put her reputation on the line with her late-week “seismic shift” essay, and who believe Labor is coming home the stronger – include Forde (almost earned a gone guernsey) Flynn, Petrie, Bonner, and Dickson (mashed potato, anyone!) in Queensland, Robertson and Reid in NSW and Hasluck (another almost goner), and Swan in WA.

Let’s assume for the sake of the argument (this is what a truly amateur psephologist can do) that the pundits and the bookies are mostly right and give six of the nine to Labor.

And we can do that because the latest Galaxy poll of Queensland voting intentions puts the LNP primary vote at 38%, more than 5% below the 2016 result. The poll’s 51-49 two-party split to the LNP is also 3% down on the 2PP last time. With so many government marginal seats in the Sunshine State, logic dictates a number are going to move across.

That’s Labor up to 80, which would make you suspect that Chloe can start checking swatches for new drapes at the Lodge. The LNP drops to 67.

But wait, there’s more!

Remaining among that Liberal marginal list are some close calls, including Boothby in SA, Leichhardt, Dawson and Capricornia in Queensland, and Pearce in Western Australia.

The two Central Queensland seats most affected by the Adani controversy – Dawson and Capricornia –  are both on a knife edge according to Sportsbet and Ladbrokes. Imagine that? Still on a knife edge after Bob Brown and his caravan of greenies tried to do their best to scuttle Labor.

Way up north, the average of those two betting houses has Labor ahead in Leichhardt where climate change’s effects on tourism may prove to be more important to voters than in coal country further south.

The bookies on average have the Libs a nose in front in Pearce in WA, Labor a nose ahead in Swan also in the west and Boothby in SA.

Just for the sake of conservatism once again, let’s give just two of those to Labor. Two out of the five!

That’s 82 seats! Morrison’s mob down to 65.

Let’s swing back over to the Labor’s marginals under 6%.

Having given away Herbert earlier, Corangamite in Victoria, Braddon and Bass in Tasmania and Lindsay in NSW appear the only ones in play. Sarah Henderson is trying her best but both bookies have Labor still comfortably ahead in Corangamite although the margin did narrow early in the campaign.

In Tasmania, there’s hardly a struck match between the two major parties from the bookies for Bass and Braddon. Let’s give one of them to the Libs for old time’s sake ‘cos we can afford to be generous.

In Lindsay the bookies have the LNP slight favourites. Let’s give the seat to them.

So that’s Labor 80 seats; Liberals 67 if my Aspley State School maths is holding up. Now, let’s swing over to what are regarded as fairly safe seats.

On the Liberal side, the bookies give a very slight edge to Labor in Stirling in WA and Deakin in Victoria where some pundits are saying the Liberal vote is softening. Let’s call that a draw to once again be quite conservative.

Finally, the supposedly safe seats. All 30 Labor seats look as safe as negatively geared houses.

But on the Liberal side, Cowper looks independent Rob “Loves a Chat” Oakeshott’s to lose.

Sussan “this goes with this goes with this goes with this” Ley is having trouble holding on in Farrer with a local mayor and independent slightly ahead. Both bookies have Zali Steggall at $1.80 ahead of the Mad Monk on $1.90 in Warringah.

Look, just to make most Australians feel better, let’s give Zali a win in Warringah and finally rid Australian politics of a truly destructive and thoroughly useless fucknuckle.

Give Ley a win in Farrer, although that’s far from a sure thing, and give Oakeshott a victory in Cowper.

That makes it Labor 80 Liberal 65 and six independents in the next Parliament for a nine-seat win.

Not that Labor would need their support on those figures, but a majority of the indies would seem likely government supporters on many issues.

A less conservative split of doubtful LNP seats would see Labor finishing close to 85 seats.

Thank you for reading and good night.

Don Gordon-Brown

POSTSCRIPT: This rant was written before #Newspoll came out overnight, with its look at four seats: Lindsay, Herbert, Corangamite and Bass. The seat carve-up above was based on Labor winning Corangamite (I’m relying a little on Patricia Karvelas’s good oil that the Libs are weakening in Victoria despite all the sandbagging) and the Liberals taking Lindsay, Herbert and either Bass or Braddon.