As one of the nation’s most non-respected amateur psephologists, I feel an uncontrollable urge to share with you all one of my uncanningly inaccurate political predictions.
So hit the phone app for your online bookie and make a quick mental note about how much of your folding you can spare … because I’m about to reveal my tip for who’s going to take out today’s NSW state election. A couple of grey nurses would be my suggestion.
Now I know Labor’s Michael Daley had an absolute shocker of a final week – ABC News Breakfast presenter Michael Rowland mentioned that about 23 times yesterday – but I’ve got this feeling in my ever-increasing gut that he’s going to go okay.
Now please understand that I’m not like professional sephs such as the Poll Bludger, Antony Green and that Kevin Bonham character in Tassie who study past results, preference deals, trends, personalities and policies and dissect day-to-day polls with forensnic fervour.
As mentioned I go mainly with the gut; that and an inspection of the entrails of a chook I slaughtered this morning.
Of course, I’m not entirely gormless. I know what the latest polls such as #newspoll say, as shown above in the Daily Shitigraph. I know Labor – city and country – is only polling a per cent or so above their 2015 effort. I know the Liberals and the Nats are down just under 5 per cent on last time.
Logic says the LNP sitting on 41% primary in the two most recent polls suggests a minority LNP government is most likely; a minority Labor govt less likely and a Labor majority government about as possible as a Winx loss this afternoon.
But that’s where I differ from real psephs. Logic might suggest that at the last moment, voters are going to opt for stability – i.e. the status quo. But why would anyone apply logic to what the only voting bloc that counts – the swingers – do? A lot of these pricks will be thinking they’re voting in the federal election and will be looking for a ballot paper with the names Morrison and Shorten on it. Still, I’ve just got this feeling they’ll swing hard and swing late to Labor.
More heart than head in that assessment, sure, but there’s some “science” to it.
The time’s up factor. Two four-year terms on any side of politics is more than enough for a crabby old cunt like me. I like to see governments change frequently, to keep the pollies from getting to chummy with suckhole senior public servants, bizoids, property developers and other shonks.
Labor, despite Daley’s late efforts, has run the better campaign, and that’s the opinion of The Australian’s state political reporter (if he still works there) and the ABC’s Brigid Glanville.
The federal factor: that lying, cheating, hypocritical turd Morrision must be worth 1 per cent to Labor
The Alliance Stadium debacle, played very poorly by Berejiklian
The inner-city light-rail shemozzle; and
While everyone (including ABC reporters) is wondering why Berejiklian and her team are in trouble considering how well the NSW economy is performing, the citizenry doesn’t actually cop that shit ‘cos they’re hurting to billyO and besides, anyone can have money in the bank if they flog off $70 billion in public assets and rake in billions more in property stamp duties.
So get some money on. I just not exactly sure who, though. But if I had any loose change I’d have a flutter on a Labor government, minority or otherwise, if the bookies would sweeten the deal with some nice juicy odds.