Are Dutton’s prospects being poll-axed?

Australia’s No.1 family newszine The Bug continues its exhaustive and exhausting coverage of the federal election campaign, even though we’re starting to wonder if anyone is still interested in what’s happening on the hustings.

Haven’t kicked off any our daily campaign reviews with a look at the polling numbers so let’s fix that right now.

Since Sunday night’s Newspoll, two more have rolled in – Morgan and Resolve – and they must be worrying reading for those alleged journos in the mainstream media who tried their Rupert-trained best to paint the second week of the campaign as a much better one for Peter Dutton and his LNP “We can win this one just by being Trump-like” Coalition.

Our personal favourite was Mr Bridget McKenzie’s …. sorry … Simon Benson’s view, always through Liberal blue-coloured glasses as he does, that Dutton had rediscovered his mojo! Keep this to yourselves but we suspect Benson might have one hand on our Media Glass House Arse-Licker for April trophy. We know where the other hand is.

So, those latest polls. Newscorpe kept things steady at 52-48 two-party preferred to Labor, but a one-point drop in the LNP primary vote, Albanese moving ahead as preferred PM and Dutton’s non-approval rating even worse than Albanese’s must be ringing alarm bells for the Opposition. If these clowns think they have a chance of minority government on that sort of primary vote, they could probably buy every lucky envelope ticket in an RSL draw at their local show and still not get a top-shelf prize,

Morgan moved Labor ahead a point to 54.5/46.5 and probably the most interesting was the Heralds’ Resolve poll that had Labor ahead 53/47.

If our maths is correct, the average of the polls we are monitoring has Labor ahead 53.25 to 46.75 2PP.

The Resolve poll is particularly instructive and not just for the fact that less than a month ago, it had both sides locked at 50-50. Just as interesting to a lot of people, and not just Mrs Dutton busily going through swatches at the moment over her plans to repaint the interior walls and change the curtains at Kirrabilli House, is its finding that a majority of those polled want the May 3 result to be a majority government.

And that should spell more gloom and doom for Liberal Party strategists particularly; on those current poll averages only one single party can govern in majority and it’s coloured red. That suggests any late swing back to the LNP is very, very, unlikely.

If only the LNP had not made the what-now-appears-to-be-the-fatal decision to simply mimic Trump and expect to win with a patchwork of poorly thought-out and currently uncosted policies!

Hubris, arrogance, laziness and an unwavering belief in a God-given right to rule almost all of the time with Rupert Murdoch’s help can be a toxic mix.

Right! What else happened on the campaign trail yesterday (Monday)?

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Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s campaign swing through Brisbane yesterday may have backfired after it raised questions about the competence of any government he would lead as prime minister if the Coalition parties win on Saturday 3 May.

During visits to three Brisbane seats now held by Greens MPs – Brisbane, Griffith, and Ryan – Mr Dutton yet again visited a service station to fill one of his candidates’ vehicles with petrol to plug his plan to cut federal fuel tax for a year if elected. (below)

But The Bug understands the now oft-repeated set-piece stunt is causing concern among swinging would-be Liberal or LNP voters.

Extensive research findings from focus groups seen by The Bug after being fabricated by Labor sources, shows unaligned voters are increasingly worried about a Dutton government’s potential competence.

“I’m very worried,” said one participant in the focus group. “All I keep seeing on the nightly TV news is Peter Dutton pumping petrol into a Liberal candidate’s car.

“If the Libs seem to have preselected people who are so useless that they can’t even keep their own cars fully fuelled, what sort of people are they?

“Do I really want those type of thickheads in charge of the country when they can’t even manage the basics of daily life?”

A Liberal campaign spokesperson dismissed the concerns as “a fabricated Labor scare campaign” which The Bug maintains is pretty spot-on.

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For its part, the Liberal Party yesterday attempted to talk up a “deep and irreparable split in the Albanese Government” between the PM and his Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek.

The effort to divide government ranks follows an awkward air kiss between Prime Minister Albanese and Plibersek at Labor’s policy speech on Sunday.

The Liberals have described the incident as “a major scandal” and have employed a traditional political scandal moniker, dubbing it “Awkwardairkissgate”.

A Labor campaign spokesperson dismissed the concerns as “a fabricated Liberal scare campaign” which The Bug maintains is pretty spot-on.

We note that no reputable media outlets have paid much attention to the split-second incident and it has been only official Liberal Party propaganda outfits that have been pursuing the story. (below)

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No words needed.

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And how did the punters react to events on the hustings yesterday? Surely voters unsure of which way to turn ran out of tissues as they wept uncontrollably as they learnt of Peter Dutton’s son’s shattered dreams of home ownership, what with the Bank of Mum and Dad having foreclosed and unable to help out.

At around 9.40pm last night, here are the odds from the betting agencies that we are monitoring, compared with 24 hours earlier!

Sportsbet: Labor $1.29 ($1.31 ); Coalition $3.62 ($3.48)
Ladbrokes: Labor $1.30 ($1.30 ); Coalition $3.50 ($3.50)
TAB: Labor $1.27 ($1.26); Coalition $3.80 ($3.75)
bet365: Labor $1.28 ($1.28) Coalition $3.75 ($3.75).
Neds: Labor $1.30 ($1.30); Coalition $3.50 ($3.50).

Hmmm. Maybe voters – at least the punters among them – have switched off.

BREAKING OVERNIGHT: The online bookies have slashed the odds of the LNP winning the election after news emerged early this morning (Tuesday) that John Howard has come down with Covid and will not be able to campaign for the Coalition in must-keep/must reclaim seats.

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