LOGIE AWARDS:
The ABC’s election analyst Antony Green says there may be a shock outcome at the end of counting in tonight’s election for the TV Week Gold Logie.
Mr Green said he had been working for weeks on his computer model for analysing voting by Australian television viewers and had spent many hours rehearsing during the week. (main picture)
“It’s a seven-way race in the Gold Logie election so I’ve had to factor in preference flows where we know them and to estimate flows where we don’t,” he said.
“For instance, the ABC is running a ticket with three candidates in Leigh Sales, Shaun Micallef, and Mark Coles Smith.
“So it’s relatively easy for me and my team of analysts to design a model that factors in a tight preference swap between those three. But it gets more difficult with the rest of the field who are essentially running as independents.
“Nevertheless I now have a computer model that allows me to predict preference flows as accurately as possible while also giving me scope to do my usual trick of rabbiting on and on for most of the night without actually saying much of any consequence until sufficient votes are in to make the result obvious.
“Also, as usual, if the result is staring everyone in the face I’ll be calling tonight’s election fairly early in the live telecast to help secure my reputation as a brilliant incisive psephologist,” he said.
But Mr Green also did not rule out a possible surprise result in the Gold Logie election.
“With the Logie Awards there is always the risk of voters not following the list of official nominees in any category,” he warned.
“They may well cast their votes by writing in the name of someone not on the TV Week list.
“If there are enough write-in votes in the Gold Logie election we may well see the controversial 2019 winner, the ABC’s Tom Gleeson, (below) taking out the top award again.
“But having warned of such an outside possibility in this story I’ll be able to confidently claim that I predicted that outcome if and when it happens tonight,” Mr Green said.
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