…. along with Brother Stuie?
FADDEN BY-ELECION:
It’s not easy being arguably Australia’s most inaccurate amateur psephologist.
A real psephologist studies polls, trends and history …. shit like that. Talks to all the stakeholders. Has so much relevant material stored in their brain. But I’m not the least bit interested in stuff like that.
It’s largely down to trusting my ever-increasing gut feeling. And of course, the vibe of the thing.
And that vibe rests on finding the answer to one simple question: how fucking stupid are the voters in the election or electorate being evaluated.
For starters, we know the voters of Fadden are pretty fucking stupid for returning Stuart Robert (above) at the 2022 federal election, albeit with a reduced 2PP preferred vote of 60.6 per cent.
This reptile, shredded by the Robodebt Royal commission and likely to come under the gaze of NACC over other .. ah, hem … financial interests, has an all-powering stench about him.
It’s that pong more than anything that would suggest the voters of Fadden are not going to be all that happy to be heading out today to participate in a very expensive exercise – almost two years early – to hopefully find a replacement who’s honest and decent. What a nice change that will be.
It’s that reality that has this amateur psephologist largely putting aside the notion that byelections always swing against the incumbent government. The result in Aston a while ago blew that historical fact out of the water anyway.
So for starters let’s face that reality. This byelection will swing some way towards Labor. But just by how much is the key.
The next consideration for this ever increasing gut of mine is apart from the fact that Robert should make any decent local’s skin crawl as they approach ballot booths, what are the other issues these good folk are passing judgment on.
Listen to last night’s TV news bulletins and it’s the cost of living crisis and youth crime. And that’s why I always come back to the simple evaluation of the voters’ intelligence.
The LNP is urging Fadden voters to punish the Queensland Labor government over its perceived failures to address – yes, you’ve guessed it – a state government issue. Both sides of politics do it but what a slap in the face it always is for locals to be conned into that sort of reaction when their main job is to put in Parliament someone who will fight on federal issues on their behalf.
Voters should be pissed off about that attempt to hoodwink them but will they fall for it instead? It often happens.
The cost of living crisis is an equally difficult issue to assess properly. The federal polls are suggesting that Albanese and Labor have not yet copped much blame for the fact that many Australians are doing it very, very tough. They might soon … but not just now.
So, a summary then.
Fadden on an LNP margin of just 10.6 percent is not the shoo-in this nation’s politics scribes say it is. Hello David “everyone thinks the LNP will retain the seat” Speers. Really, Speersie? Everyone?
Let’s factor in next the realty that the latest Newspoll still has Labor’s primary vote across the nation at roughly 4.5 per cent up on its primary vote of 32.58 in May last year.
A couple more considerations. The seat this time has three independent candidates, including a very active Belinda Jones who has a large social media following of some 50,000 plus, said to be largely based in the electorate. The LNP seems to be the only party spending up big for the campaign with their man plastered everywhere, even though it could be argued he’s not all that flash, apparently being another god-botherer in the festering mold of Brother Stuie. That might be a plus if Fadden is chokas full of happy clappers like Dutton’s Dickson further north. Labor’s female candidate from 2022 is running again, hampered by a very modest spend.
So, decision time for Australia’s leading sometimes accurate amateur psephologist! This is a tough one folks! But I know times are tough and you could all do with some extra reddies.
So my prediction as to the state of play at the end of counting tonight: Labor 50.2; LNP 49.8, with the LNP to eventually hold it by a fairly narrow margin!
Oh, fuck it! Where’s the guts in that? Do I want to look cleverer than the ABC’s new national politics lead David Speers or not? Besides, I only went with the LNP because I don’t want to see Dutton rolled. It must surely be in Australia’s best interests to see Peter Dutton still Opposition Leader at the next federal poll.
So my fresh prediction: Labor to win the seat eventually after some days of nail-biting counting! Get onto those online bookies right now! Their odds on a Labor victory would have to be very, very juicy so you won’t have to risk all that much for a nice payout.
C’mon, I know you want to do it. Have I ever let you down?
Don Gordon-Brown
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