… but, fuck it, here goes!

I’ve never been one to brag – those who have known me well over time can insert loud and prolonged canned laughter here – but I am proud as punch this morning and, yes, perhaps just a little bit boastful.

The reason? As Australia’s leading and occasionally accurate amateur psephologist, I pretty much nailed the NSW state election outcome in a column four days ago.

Here’s what I wrote: Chris Minns’ Labor Party is going to win an outright victory, not just the minority government that even the mainstream mediocre is praying won’t happen.

Here are the primary figures at close of counting on Saturday night, based on my ever-increasing gut feeling about this election. LNP 34.51. Labor 36.85 Greens 11 Independent 7. Others 6.

And the actual primary figures at the close of counting last night: LNP 34.74; Labor 37.12; Greens 10.13!

Not bad, eh? Got the LNP vote out by only 0.23 per cent; Labor out by 0.27 per cent; Greens out by 0.83 per cent!

So, really, can you blame little old humble me for the decision I’ve taken this morning to have my amateur psephologist shingle reframed and straightened up on the wall?

Those predictions from the aforementioned and ever-increasing gut feelings I use in my psephology came after the Resolve poll for The Sydney Morning Herald had the LNP and Labor level on 38 per cent primary support. My gut called bullshit. Rogue poll, I screamed.

Nothing in my gut supported any suggestion that the LNP had lifted six percentage points between Resolve polls. That gut also called bullshit on mainstream mediocre efforts in the dying stages of the campaign to paint a picture of a close tussle. Even yesterday, the ABC was pushing that line, based on “the latest polls”. What fucking late polls! Newspoll? With its 54.5/45.5 two-party lead to Labor?

So, a summary then. It’s true that as Australia’s leading and occasionally accurate amateur psephologist, I occasionally get it right. I am rather proud of this one.

What’s also sadly true is that the mainstream mediocre have performed very poorly in this election. All this neck-and-neck business. The race is tightening! The late momentum is with Perrottet who has performed brilliantly! Minns has been hampered by a sloppy Labor HQ! The hidden yet deliberate message behind all of this: we’re headed for hung parliament chaos so please do the right thing and return the LNP for good strong stable government from the only side of politics that can manage economies well!

Bullshit piled on bullshit piled on bullshit.

Sadly, if the LNP had been consistently well ahead in the polls as Labor was, the mainstream mediocre’s approach to this election would have been entirely different. LNP set to be rewarded for good governance: latest polls!!!!! Why can’t Labor ever be competetive! Etc, fucking, etc.

Can anyone out there in Bugland recall any MSM member – any politics columnist/analyst – brave enough to call out the last term of the Berejiklian/Perrottet government for what it was: a poor economic manager with more than a hint of corruption to it; a Liberal Party beset by internal divisions?

I’ve never been one for a potty mouth or to use words to cut people down cruelly – those who have known me well over time can insert loud and prolonged canned laughter here – but it’s true; otherwise, I really would like to tell the great bulk of Australia’s mainstream mediocre to go fuck themselves with a rubber hose. They almost make me ashamed to have been a journalist for more than half-a-century.

Don Gordon-Brown