This column comes to you in my guise as Australia’s leading and occasionally accurate amateur psephologist.

So I’m going to pause for a moment while you get your bet-without-mates app out – because you’re that sort of person – and ready yourself to clean up big time at Saturday’s NSW state election. You won’t even need to take a multi-grip out on yourself or hope to get another $50 back to reinvest as the perpetual lose you are!

Ready: Chris Minns’ Labor Party is going to win an outright victory, not just the minority government that even the mainstream mediocre is praying won’t happen.

Here are the primary figures at close of counting on Saturday night, based on my ever-increasing gut feeling about this election. LNP 34.51. Labor 36.85 Greens 11 Independent 7. Others 6.

Okay? Easy peazy. Fruit for the sideboard. Money for jam. Well, maybe not as much as you’d like but more on that later.

Why am I so confident of Saturday’s outcome? True, the MSM keeps banging on about the polls tightening and the two major players being neck and neck. But they always do that. You know the Duckworth Lewis Stern system in cricket? Outcomes in politics – well, the ones the MSM hope to achieve – use the Coorey/Uhlmann method.

It goes on the principle that if the two major parties are roughly even on primary votes, then a hung parliament is on the cards and because no-one wants that, voters need to avoid such instability by voting for the devil they know. Yes, the LNP.

The Coorey/Uhlmann method completely ignores the Greens vote – yes, the other mob on the left of politics – to spread such hung-parliament mischief. It’s fine to add the Liberals and Nationals votes together but you can’t do the same for Labor and the Greens. Yes, it’s a complete nonsense. The “journalists” who cooked up the Coorey/Uhlmann method know it is absolute hogwash but push it every chance they get.

Labor at the May federal election last year didn’t end up on equal primaries with the LNP as the late polls predicted. It ended up Labor 32.58 per cent primary vote; the LNP 35.70. That Labor still won a majority in its own right shows just how deceitfully rotten the Coorey/Uhlmann method is. It’s got fuck all to do with journalism; it’s pure flim-flammery. It’s the ultimate con job.

And that’s why you need to clean up! A Minns government is coming. Trust me. I know a doctor.

Hold on here! I’m getting the feeling you’re still a bit unsure.

Let me explain my figures more fully. They were partly formed by the recent Resolve Political Monitor poll for The Sydney Morning Herald. Its primary figures had the LNP and Labor on 38 per cent each, the Greens on 8 and the independents and others on eight each.

I’m calling that a rogue poll. Nothing I’ve seen over recent times suggests the LNP deserved the six per cent rise in primaries from the previous Resolve Poll. It’s nonsense, for mine. Perrottet’s main campaign policy – throwing $400 into bank accounts created for kids aged 10 and under – went down like a question from Sussan Ley in federal Parliament.

My gut tells me neither Labor or the LNP are going to get 38 per cent on the night. The Greens will do better than 8 because there’s a lot going for them right now. The Teals will do okay but not quite as well as they might hope.

I suspect there’ll be a final Newspoll on election eve which is another reason I’m going early with my predictions. My amateur psephologist shingle is a little tacky and slightly off centre. I want to see my amazing predictions come true as incentive to refresh that shingle and level it with pride!

Let me explain more fully why my months of purely amateurish psephology – based more on that gut instinct rather than the scientific, professional approach real psepholgists such as the respected Kevin Bonham practice (blokes like Bonham actually factor in silly details like NSW has optional preferential voting!) – have formed my predictions for Saturday.

First of all, it’s the It’s Time factor. Even a good government would have trouble winning a fourth term after 12 years in office, let alone a very average one with more than a sniff of corruption about it. It is indeed time. And time’s up for Dominic Perrottet.

Apart from being a bit of a right-wing religious nut, Perrottet is no doubt a fine, upstanding man, very, very, rigid in his beliefs …. seven children surely must be proof of that. And he can be admired for his stand on pokie reform even though yesterday’s Essential poll for The Guardian Australia suggests it’s no vote winner.

Much bigger problems for Dom, as The Daily Telegraph prefers to call their hero, are that the economic record of the LNP in government has not been good; that side of government has an uncanny knack of showing what good economic managers they are with solid bottom lines achieved by flogging off public assets to privateer mates. Sadly for them, the practice always has a limited life span and the public at some stage works out what they’ve lost.

Perrottet also has the problem that former Premier Gladys Berejiklian and former deputy John Porkbarilaro thought porkbarreling was a natural part of governance; they actually wore porkbarreling as a badge of honour. Political parties that believe that really need time on the opposition benches to take a long, hard look at themselves.

The Liberal brand is also on the nose at the moment, courtesy of some chap from the Shire. The shrinking down or absence of Liberal logos. The shameful use of teal on election material and the sheer absurdity of asking Teal voters to extinguish their vote by only voting 1. The fact that Peter Dutton has not been welcome on the hustings and the local Libs have had to wheel out the lying rodent, the unhanged war criminal, John Howard to help them lose votes.

Oh, and while the bookies sometimes get it wrong, the six online firms that I’ve been monitoring for this election this morning have Labor on an average of $1.15 to win; the LNP on $5.32.

I should have mentioned that at the start, oh punting loser. You’re going to have to place a helluva lot of money on Labor to make a pretty miserly profit.

But look on the bright side. If you doubt the wisdom of my ever-increasing gut, the TAB is the best at the moment with $6 for an LNP win. That’s amazing odds in a two-horse race so what do you reckon, punter? Feeling lucky, punter?

In all the excitement, I must confess I’ve forgotten how many shots I’ve fired off here. Maybe you might still be unsure about whether to take the safe $1 shot or cleaning up bigtime with the six? Well, are you, punter? Feeling lucky, punter?

Don Gordon-Brown

STOP PRESS: Since this post was uploaded, Sportsbet has moved the LNP out from $5 to $6 to match TAB and brought Labor in from $1.20 to $1.15.