So, just to clear things up….

China is ramping up its military at unparalleled speed and to unparelleled levels in readiness for the war they insist is coming.

Australia is ramping up its military at unparalleled speed and to unparelleled levels to ensure the world peace we all crave. Well, apart from China.

All on the same page, so far?

So to achieve its admirable aim, Australia will send itself broke in the decades ahead by obtaining at least 11 nuclear subs for no other reason than their ability to speedily, stealthily, underwaterly head up north fast into the South C***** Seas and get right up the arse or nose – or both – of a country that our leaders won’t mention but we might have accidentally disclosed earlier in this piece.

This power-play from Down Under, in cahoots with the US and the UK, will make bully-boy China (oops again) think twice about their plans for world domination!

Or as Joe Hockey, the man who made the Australian car-making industry what it is today, our nuclear subs will be able to give the PRC (is that better?) the bloody nose it deserves for even carrying on with this war-talk nonsense.

Now, I’ve forgotten everything I was taught at agricultural college about international diplomacy, the effectiveness of military preparedness standoffs in achieving lasting world peace and, indeed, the role of submarines, nuclear or otherwise, in 21stC warfare but is this strategy a sound one? Or is Paul Keating right in declaring the subs’ purchase the worst thing Oz has ever done except throwing him out in 1996?

I run hot and cold on Keating but my ever-increasing gut feeling is that a massive military buildup of the world’s two superpowers leads to no-where-good, which I suspect was the central idea framing Keating’s spirited National Press Club address and his excoriation of our nation’s mainstream mediocre in general and the journos who compiled the SMH’s “we’ll be at war with China in a few years” Red Alert series in particular.

Keating gets some things wrong. He says China is not threatening Australia. He must have missed that senior official some time ago who declared China would kill us if we went ahead and got anything they’ve already got by the many dozens. That’s like a neighbour with a $15,000 200cm state of the art TV/sound system threatening to burn your house down with you in it if you have the temerity to tell him you intended to buy the same unit.

But that’s China for you. They do a lot of threatening but when it comes to actually starting wars – the US-preferred method – they generally play a far more subtle, sensible game.

Make no mistake; China are dreadful bullies, as was clear in their 14-point, totally unfair and completely unacceptable demands for the removal of bans on our barley, wine, lobster, etc, exports.

But guess what? After being bullied by the US for many decades, it’s their fucking turn! Shit, if we had only seen that coming!

Keating is right in slamming the SMH’s warmongering Red Alert! series in the SMH last week. Besides, if war is coming, it’s an absolute nonsense that anything we might do in the next few years would make any difference.

China has some 56 submarines, of which 12 are nuclear-powered, according to the latest Pentagon assessment, or so says my quick and possibly inaccurate Google search. So who knows how many they really have, given the well-established quality of US military intelligence?

How many subs will China have when Australia finally gets hold of its eleven subs decades from now, and at what final cost?

Keating is also right in saying China has no intention of declaring war on Australia. They’re winning anyway seeing they provide just about every fucking thing Australians use in their day-to-day lives. Shit, if a war against China lasted more than a few months, we’ll all be naked and we’ll have run out of torch batteries and light globes and countless hundreds of other things. Not that a Bunnings or a Target would still be open to buy them. Christmas toys for kids no more! Well, not cheap, affordable, ones anyway.

China will take over Taiwan by force soon and the only way they are going to declare war on us is if the US and we as Uncle Sam’s lapdog deputy ignore our own one-China weasel-word rhetoric -what’s it called again – implausible stupidity? – and declare war on them.

Everything I’ve read of recent years suggest China can already whip Uncle Sam’s arse.
It’s only going to be much, much, more one-sided in decades to come, especially if the US is at civil war. The bullied have become the bullies and they’re on a mission if a succession of Xi’s rule China.

So Keating is spot on in criticising this AUKUS deal. For its complexity. For its staggering cost. For Australia’s loss of sovereignity. For the stupidity of thinking that having 11 attack subs – okay, maybe three or four seaworthy at any one time – that can rattle China’s cage in the South China Seas makes any sense whatsoever.

Anthony Albanese and Co. have been foolishly left holding Morrison’s AUKUS baby. AUKS! I accept they probably had to promise to adopt the bloody thing to get elected. Still …. AUKS!

But Keating is right on the major point. A real Labor government would sink this AUKUS folly right now. The bloke seems to know a fair bit about subs and he’s arguing we could have bought 30 French nuclear subs using far-less offensive nuclear material for the same outlay. Smaller too; so harder to hit.

My own view? Keating might be wrong there too. Does it really matter how many weeks it takes China to blow them out of the water whether we have just our Collins-class clunkers in three years time or 11 big nuclear-powered, easy-to -spot-despite-their-stealth claims, mother-fuckers in the 2040s or beyond? Are there better ways to build up a military deterrent to China? Maybe it’s impossible anyway.

We should continue to call China out for the bullies they are. Plead with Xi to stop wearing military clobber and stop the war talk. Behind the scenes, let him know we understand why the bullied are now the bullies but can we please all pull back from what looks like an inevitable WW3 some time down the track. Is “please stop being so cunty” diplomatic talk?

At least this would all buy some time to become less reliant on China for just about every fucking thing we use in our day-to-day lives.

Perhaps this rant is just showing my naivety but if China is, as Maggie once said, not for turning, then I’d rather buy some conventional subs to putter around the south Pacific without a billion dollars of Tomahawk missiles at the ready.

Show those Commie bastards what’s coming their way by matching their rail-gun technology with a modern-day ratling gun of our own, combining our home-ground Hills hoist and Victa motor technology to fire off some ammo we’ll probably have to get from China anyway. Sorry, what’s that! We don’t do Victa motors any more. Shit! Thanks, Joe Hockey! Puff on a cigar as our reward to you for your vision and true-blue Aussie patriotism.

That’s the only sensible path I see, bearing in mind once again I’ve forgotten everything I was taught about international diplomacy, the effectiveness of military preparedness standoffs and the role of submarines, nuclear or otherwise, in 21stC world conflict.

Up our military spend to some reasonable level to show our disquiet at China spending as much money on military toys as the US does, but keep a fair swag on those hundreds of billions of dollars for our own domestic needs until the big one comes and share what we can with helping our Pacific neighbours to resist China’s overtures.

Keating is also wrong – his arrogance sometimes gets the better of him (insert prolonged and loud canned laugher here) – in his personal attacks on Penny Wong’s efforts in the South Pacific. She’s doing exactly what is required; engaging with those countries, trying to fix nine years of neglect and water-lapping jokes from LNP governments.

Even that is probably not going to be enough, given the cash splash China will be capable of, seeing the billions that roll in endlessly by providing just about every fucking thing Australians use in their day-to-day lives.

We might have some foreign-aid money to share if that $368 billion price tag over the next three decades doesn’t blow out to double – or some more pandemics or major natural disasters strip our coffers bare – but China will gazump us easily, offering to put every house in the south Pacific on stilts to deal with those lapping waters caused by climate change. Right, Peter Dutton?

Don Gordon-Brown.

Top image courtesy of an excellent article by Richard Heggie in John Menadue’s Public Policy Journal Pearls and Irritations, reiterating some sensible suggestions on submarine purchases by Rex Patrick in an earlier Michael West Media piece. Rex, please return to federal Parliament somehow, sooner than later! You are sorely missed and badly needed.

Opportunities foregone in AUKUS submarine decision