David Speers just can’t help himself. Simply had to finish Insiders last Sunday by stressing how close the NSW state election race is.
His proof: vision of Dominic Perrottet in a retirement village pretending to have some dance-move cred; Chris Minns in a studio playing his guitar half-badly.
Yep, this is supposedly one of our nation’s top politics observers and analytical geniuses at the peak of his powers. Two pollies trying to win votes by pretending to be human in some corny visuals constitutes a close election race, according to the brilliant and perspicacious Speers.
It’s all nonsense, of course, and right-wing Speers wants to create the impression the race is close so MSM politics scribes can bang on about hung parliaments in the hope of getting voters to stick with the devil they know. It’s straight out of the Coorey/Uhlmann play book.
The grim reality is that while Speers certainly could be proved right on election day – the remaining 11 days on the hustings is still a long, long, time in politics – no current indicator shows a close-fought election.
Newspoll had the two sides the closest at 52-48 2PP to Labor but that poll has grey hairs on it now; Roy Morgan 52.5/47.5 and almost as grey. The slightly fresher SMH’s Resolve poll has Labor much better placed. It doesn’t do a 2PP figure but on their primaries it would make grim reading for the LNP. An AFR poll on an outer-Sydney seat has Labor with a 10 per cent improvement 2PP.
I’ve never seen the online bookies’ odds so much in Labor’s favour. This morning, the six betting firms I’m monitoring have Labor on average at $1.20 and the LNP on $4.20. That’s a big, big, gap in a two-horse race and it’s been stubbornly wide for weeks. Importantly, it hasn’t moved an inch since the LNP campaign launch at the weekend and Perrottet’s main pitch: a future fund aka bribe cash handout to kids.
Also, last weekend, ABC polls guru Antony Green made the point that the Perrottet government is already in minority and he reckons it’s hard to see it gaining seats and the likelihood of losing seats is strong. “There’s not a big path for the government to get back into office,” Green says in careful understatement.
So right now, the NSW election is anything but close. And my guess is that Speers knows it.
But arguing an election is close is what right-wing politics commentators do. It’s in their DNA and a crucial part of their MO. Speers couldn’t shake off his SkyNews background even if he wanted to. Not that he does.
Personally, I think Speers calling the NSW poll close on Sunday makes him look stupid. Were I in charge of the ABC I’d boot him off politics quick smart and consign him to fruit and veggie market reports unless the shipping news is still a thing?
Don Gordon-Brown
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