… but he can’t afford to take his time!

As Australia’s arguably occasionally most accurate amateur psephologist, I’ve forgotten the number of times I’ve tossed my shingle in the garbage bin (above) after a prediction has .. ahem … ah … gone tragically wrong.

But I’m here to seek to redeem my reputation with what will automatically appear as an absurdly stupid prediction to most if not all you BUGgers out there: that Steven Miles and Labor will win a fourth term at the state poll on 26 October!

Yes, I know! I know! If a week is a long time in politics, 18 weeks and one sleep away from that state poll is an eternity, so you’d have to be really fucking stupid to predict a Miles win, especially given the most recent polls which suggest the election will see a swing of Campbell Newman proportions – his good election day, I mean by that; not the one that followed.

So, please, get some money on as quick as you can, because once I start to explain how my amateur psephology has reached this prediction supported by absolutely no-one else with any interest in state politics, the odds will start tumbling down. Now’s the time to make a motza.

Here’s what’s going to happen. For Miles to come from nowhere, he won’t be able to take his time. As I’ve mentioned before, he’s got to show some mongrel, starting right here and right now. I’d love him to tell the media to go fuck themselves at every opportunity but, sadly, he’s too nice to do that.

But he’s got to start campaigning right here and right now. As I mentioned in a recent rant, he’s got to go to the mattresses and up the political war ante big time.

His task: no matter how fucked up his government – and before him, Palaszczuk’s – have been the past decade or so, David Crisafulli will be even worse because he’s openly committed to small, ineffectual government devoid of a $100 billion coal royalty tax windfall. He’s already committed to taxing less and spending less. He has little if no understanding of how governments operate – that they can legitimately go into deficit to help their citizens through tough times and it’s not a mortal sin to do that.

Maybe Queenslanders will like the idea of a small, ineffective government doing fuck all and will prove those polls right by giving this government the heave-ho. Back into the rubbish bin will go my shingle if that’s the case.

The chief wedge – where’s the money going to come from to fix the state’s ills and the cost-of-living crisis – has already begun to those open-minded and wide-eyed enough to see it, so that excludes the LNP’s Bowen Hills branch, the Nine and Seven news networks and the 4BC shockjocks.

Even on the night of Labor’s two disastrous by-election results the other month, state treasurer Cameron Dick played the coal royalty tax wedge card. He’s a pretty slick operator. He’s going to win debates in the months ahead, as I believe Miles will too over Crisafulli, clutching his little blue and golden book of hopes and dreams.

It’s not going to be easy, but Miles and Co. can limp over the line here in this amateur psepholgist’s view, one heartened by the reality that The Courier and Sunday Mails, Nine News Queensland, Seven News and certain radio shock-jocks are nowhere near as influential or agenda-setting as they think they are.

Don Gordon-Brown

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